Who will win Bihar Election 2025
The Bihar Assembly Election 2025 has concluded voting in two phases, with a strong voter turnout reportedly over 60%. The main contest is between the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Nitish Kumar, and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), led by Tejashwi Yadav.
Additionally, a third front led by Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj contested independently but is predicted to have limited impact.
### Current Election Context and Key Players
- The Bihar Legislative Assembly has 243 seats; a party or alliance requires 122 seats for a majority.
- The NDA comprises BJP, JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas faction), Hindustani Awam Morcha, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha.
- The Mahagathbandhan includes RJD, Congress, CPI, CPI(M), CPI(ML), and VIP.
- Jan Suraaj, a newcomer, contested all seats independently but is predicted to win few or no seats.
### Exit Poll Predictions
Multiple reputable exit polls have been conducted and released after voting concluded on November 11, 2025. Most exit polls project a clear win for the NDA, with seat counts varying but mostly indicating a majority government formation.
- NDA seat projections range from approximately 130 to over 160 seats, indicating a strong possibility of retaining power.
- Mahagathbandhan is projected to win between roughly 64 to 115 seats depending on the poll.
- Jan Suraaj is forecasted to get negligible seats or none, indicating limited electoral impact.
- Some specific poll numbers include:
- TIF Research predicted 145-163 seats for NDA, 76-95 for Mahagathbandhan, and zero for Jan Suraaj.
- People's Pulse gave the NDA 133-159 seats and Mahagathbandhan 75-101.
- Dainik Bhaskar suggested NDA 145–160 seats and Mahagathbandhan 73–91.
- Chanakya Strategies forecasted 130-138 seats for NDA and 100-108 for Mahagathbandhan.
Experts note that the high voter turnout and the coalition strength of the NDA, which includes important allies like Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, contribute to its predicted dominance.
### Analysis of Factors Influencing the Election Outcome
1. **Leadership and Coalition Strength:**
Nitish Kumar’s leadership and the coalition strategy of NDA appear to have solidified their voter base. The alliance’s combination of caste, development, and stability narratives resonates with many voters.
2. **Opposition Challenges:**
The Mahagathbandhan has struggled to convert its potential vote base into a decisive majority. Despite being the largest single party in some previous elections (RJD winning 75 seats in 2020), it lacks enough partners to cross the majority mark convincingly.
3. **Emergence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj:**
While it introduced a new front, Jan Suraaj seemingly failed to gain the traction expected, with exit polls suggesting minimal to zero seats. Its presence, however, might have affected vote shares of other parties.
4. **Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout:**
High voter turnout exceeding 60% shows strong democratic participation. Exit polls and experts interpret this as a sign that the electorate favors continuity with NDA's governance.
5. **Security and Election Management:**
Security measures, including sealing the border with Nepal during the election period, helped ensure peaceful voting, reflecting in a credible and orderly election process.
### Conclusion
All current data, including exit polls and expert analysis, point towards the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Nitish Kumar, likely to win the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 with a comfortable majority. The opposition Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan faces setbacks with insufficient numbers projected to surpass NDA's tally. The third front, Jan Suraaj, appears to have failed in making electoral inroads.
The final official results to be announced on November 14, 2025, will confirm the exact seat distribution, but current projections strongly suggest another term in power for the NDA in Bihar.
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